Permafrost thaw and ground settlement considering long-term climate impact in northern Alaska

Abstract Alaska’s North Slope is predicted to experience twice the warming expected globally. When summers are longer and winters shortened, ground surface conditions in Arctic change considerably. This significant for Alaska, a region that supports infrastructure such as energy extraction transport assets (pipelines), buildings, roadways, bridges. Climatic at has been shown impact soil layers beneath through harmonic fluctuation of active layer, warmer air temperature can result progressive permafrost thaw, leading deeper layer. study attempts assess climate based on model data from fifth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project its environment Northern Alaska. The analyzed evaluate how freezing thawing indices will due warming. A thermal was developed incorporated condition defined by either undisturbed intact tundra or gravel fill applied temperatures. Results indicate similar layer thickness values fall within range minimum maximum readings last quarter-century. It found increases, with amount depending predictions conditions. These variations then considering near-surface frozen ice content. Analysis results indicates thaw strain most layers, indicating settlement would be concurrent annual penetration. Moreover, content major factor prediction. assessment methodology, after improvement, help enhance resilience existing future new changing environment.